Stretch that to 30 years and the most popular benchmark index in the world has seen a total return of over 1,177 percent despite multiple recessions and market crashes. There is a clear lesson from the chart above: Stocks generally go up, especially when you zoom out.

The S&P 500 is on a record run this year, posting its strongest year-to-date performance since 1997. But all good things must come to an end, Goldman Sachs analysts argued in a note Monday.

Goldman Sachs ( GS) strategists led by David Kostin estimate that the S&P 500 index will deliver an annualized return of 3% over the next decade — well below the 13% returns in the last 10 years and the long-term average of 11%.